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What would 1000 daily COVID cases look like? 转发

离散鼠穴  •   •  1691 次浏览

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与其看每天一堆人在这里瞎逼逼，不如去读读别人用数字写的分析：

As we transition towards 'COVID-Resilience', daily case numbers would no longer be the primary metric we measure the spread of COVID-19. As we opened up in recent weeks, we have also seen an expected rise in transmission, up to a couple hundred daily cases, and we can expect this number to rise further. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung has stated that we typically see up to 1000 daily influenza cases, reported　here, and countries like Finland or Denmark have similar population sizes and around 800 daily infections today. I am interested to see what the state of the disease would be like in the near future when we reopen our economy and society, and thus have done a quick investigation using data from both locally and overseas.

26 条回复
  • 离散鼠穴 楼主
    #1

  • Blzrd
    #2

    作者好像是物理及应用数学背景，评论很有意思：I seriously doubt that we will hit 10k daily cases. Adjusted per capita, 1000 daily cases is around 180 cases per million. This is comparable to places like Austria, Portugal, or France, each are well vaccinated implementing a gradual reopening. Going up to 10k per day is 1800 cases per million, 3 times that of Malaysia and 4 times of the US and UK. I don't see our country reaching that point even if we completely drop restrictions tomorrow.


    作者在评论区写的

  • andy99
    #3

    人口密度不同，不能直接用简单的数学方式推算和比较的新加坡等于一个人口密集的城市。
    要用数据推算，也是纽约，东京，伦敦，巴黎这种大都市。

  • 鱼片粥
    #4

    老ID都出来透气了....但是科学数据说服不了不懂科学的人毕竟好赌的人总是觉得概率是50%，中和不中。同样的这些人觉得对他们来说就是得病和不得病，重病率死亡率这些中间状态完全不重要。

    不懂科学的人还是要靠政客来说服，前提是政客有良心

  • mltt
    #5

    怕怕的，看来要在家里躲几年才行

  • 家琪
    #6

    连千年老妖都给炸出来了 。。。

  • 笑傲2021
    #7

    美国欧洲轻症都不测的，他们每天确诊不一定算数的，要看就看以色列以色列可是妥妥的最高点千分之一以上。
    按新加坡比例，就是6000以上，7000、8000都有可能。

    我建议moh最好把icu扩建一下（例如在某个地方建一个大型的肺炎icu，呼吸机买足），因为如果真全放开，每天6000以上，高峰期每天可能有数百人icu，按照一个icu 一个月出院，最好备足上万人icu（呼吸机）的资源。

    当然这些资源可能是临时资源。等2、3年后全民全部感染一两遍之后，重症应该就不会这么多了。

  • x4
    #8

    家家都有本难念的经政府的作用之一就是安抚恐慌。
    趁现在赶紧筹备医疗资源吧，人，物资，本地的，海外的援助，多多益善。
    楼上说得对，不可能有一摸一样的场景，就算纽约，可能大部分老人去乡下了，新加坡的情况又能跟哪个城市做对比参考呢。

  • dsx1
    #9

    这个数量的icu是不可能的经济上就不划算。不是光买床就可以的，还有配套，医疗人员，这个可不是一天两天能找来的。一天新增10个icu就了不得了。

  • hongmong
    #10

    我一直对这种建模表示怀疑敢问建模的根据在哪里？

  • typhoonzj
    #11

    The vaccine reduces infection rate, but it will not prevent all cases.With our population being 80% fully vaccinated,根据他的模型，每天1000个人中788个是Vaccinated,这怎么支持这句"The vaccine reduces infection rate"?

  • 54qnian
    #12

    耸人听闻了现在每天200＋,打过2针疫苗的这一个月来还没有ICU的。需要吸氧的不一定需要ICU 病房

  • 笑傲2021
    #13

    那我可能理解错icu的意思了。反正要建立大几千（5000+）-1万重症床位都配呼吸机这种的。
    这样才能游刃有余真正放开。

  • typhoonzj
    #14

    最好再每户一台制氧机每楼配几台呼吸机，不行了就吸氧，吸氧：不行就下楼直接呼吸机，这样开放大家也放心了

  • 54qnian
    #15

    基本上是重症中的5分之1进ICU其它吸氧的有呼吸机就行了

  • 离散鼠穴 楼主
    #16

    这个说法，我不得不赞啊。。。

  • 青锋明
    #17

    Good to knowBut why...and why now

  • 离散鼠穴 楼主
    #18

    整篇文章就是从Data Sources and Assumptions开始的。。。阅读能力啊Data Sources and Assumptions

    Since COVID-19 severity heavily depends on age, I have split my analyses into 5 different age bands: 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-70, and 70+. These correspond to children, young adults, senior workers, early retirees, and old seniors respectively. Unfortunately, most sources do not split up data for 0-12 and 12-19, so I had to group them together. However, as we will see later, this makes little difference in the results since the rate of serious disease is so tiny among young people.

    Obviously, my primary source for statistics on the disease, vaccination, and overall demographics is the Ministry of Health. The MOH COVID-19 website gives us a clear breakdown of infections by age bracket, vaccination by age bracket, and rate of severe illness by age bracket. This government dataset also gives us the breakdown of deaths by age, and this dataset shows the breakdown of deaths by cause.

    I also used MOH sources for vaccine efficacy, as well as the reduction of severity through vaccination. Vaccine efficacy is taken to be 40% as reported by the Straits Times.The rate of serious infection is taken to be 9% and vaccine effectiveness against severe illness is taken to be 10x based on collating data from the MOH daily updates.

  • duoduodf
    #19

    硬件如果还可以解决的话软件是最困难的，如果医护人员缺乏 有再多的病床也没用

  • random1234
    #20

    问题就是他的Data sources and Assumptions如果他的Data sources and Assumptions 有问题，无论他的推断方式多么有效，得出的结果还是有问题的。
    这里他把MOH 的 Vaccine efficacy 数字 40% 直接拿来用， 问题是这个数字真的是正确的吗？ 实时数据显示 78.8% 的新病例是打过疫苗的，相对于80% 总人口是打过疫苗的， 从哪里能看出疫苗对降低感染有效呢？ 反正我看不出来， 我怎么看这降低感染率的Vaccine efficacy 都是约等于 0%.

  • jy12
    #21

    话说谁知道40%怎么来的按当初95%有效率的算法，应该是多少？

  • hongmong
    #22

    建模的根据是指Data Sources？阅读能力啊Data Sources，只是Data，Data没有建模的理念怎建模啊？
    别人建个模就信？这，怎说你呢？
    呵呵

  • hongmong
    #23

    明显是个外行建模至少要对病理逻辑要深入的了解，
    光看个数据就能建模，那群体免疫不是早实现了？

  • 青锋明
    #24

    It makes senseCan pls elaborate?

  • hongmong
    #25

    Sorry，自知自己对covid-19病理还很不了解摊手

  • Blzrd
    #26

    文章只是提供一个参考吧，比如你认同其推理方式但质疑sources + assumptions

    可以自己代入efficacy 0%, etc算或去评论区留言让他再算一下～

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